Once the resource area for the agriculture/equine industry in the region was identified and categorized, the next challenge was to predict areas of future land use conflict.  This required predicting future development patterns that would cause agricultural land to be irreversibly converted to some other land use.  The development trend maps illustrating future development patterns are based on work started by Bluegrass Tomorrow in 1998.  In order to further their development on framework elements for a regional land use plan, Bluegrass Tomorrow commissioned a set of maps to depict the impact of future trends of development on regional resources. Land use patterns that were mapped included historical development trends, currently planned development, and infrastructure which could guide development.  The resulting maps were overlaid with each other in order to identify the areas where development could threaten regional resources.  Bluegrass Tomorrow is expected to incorporate the work from this study into their future planning efforts.

Efficient planning involves the careful development of  goals and objectives. As part of this study, the goals and objectives related to future expansion in the comprehensive plans for each of the seven counties were evaluated and analyzed.  Several counties do not recognize or address some planning goal areas while Madison county has yet to officially adopt any guidelines for future growth into their comprehensive plan.  For this study, each goal was evaluated on the basis of its strength of vision and ability to direct growth patterns to accomplish their respective goals.  Based on this evaluation, it appears that some of the goals directing growth are too generic to serve as meaningful planning tools (County Comprehensive Plans).

Another factor to consider when predicting future development trends is that of population growth and land conversion rate. The population in the Bluegrass Region has experienced a slow steady increase in recent history. At the same time, however, the amount of developed land acreage converted from rural to developed uses has increased at a rate far exceeding that of population growth.  When comparing rural land conversion to population growth, it becomes clear that rural lands are being consumed at a very inefficient rate.  In fact, Kentucky ranks among the top ten states in rate of conversion of farm land to development acreage, and has a similar ranking in the most inefficient use of converted lands (Olson & Lyson, p.28).  Present trends suggest the inefficient use of land for development will continue unless new and stronger policies are enacted to encourage infill and higher densification in urban areas.

Zoning and similar regulations that dictate how rural lands may be developed are critical factors in determining how a community or county will grow in the future.  Zoning regulations are quite different among the seven counties of the study region.

For example, in Bourbon and Clark counties where future development must occur along existing roads, it can be predicted that development will occur in a linear pattern along the corridors.  In Madison county, which has no county-wide zoning, regulations require only a one acre minimum to build a home in the rural area, thus development can be predicted to occur in scattered patterns throughout the county.  Both Jessamine and Scott counties have a five acre minimum requirement for building in their rural areas. In Fayette county, a ten acre minimum is required for all new rural development outside the urban service area.  Plans to increase this to a 40 acre minimum are presently under consideration.  In Woodford county, a dual zoning policy has been instituted in which one part of the county has been designated an agricultural preserve requiring a 30 acre minimum for development, while cluster development may occur on five acre tracts in the remainder of the county.

The existing infrastructure and development potential are also key factors in predicting where growth will occur in the future.  The infrastructure elements considered for the seven county study area include existing and proposed road improvements, existing and proposed sewer treatment plants, water supply, and school systems.  The location of the infrastructure elements plays a major role in determining where new population growth is most easily accommodated in future development.

By assessing the factors that influence development, the future location and pattern of development can be predicted and mapped.  This map illustrates existing developed areas, those planned for development, and areas being considered for future conversion from rural to urban expansion areas.