If future growth and development occur at their present rate and patterns, the Bluegrass Region faces several risks to its unique resources. Development along corridors and in rural areas will continue to fragment the agricultural core and change the perceived character of the region.  The loss of this agricultural core will result in diminishing identity for the regional towns as their boundaries begin to merge and grow together.  Sprawling development will continue to endanger area natural resources, like savannas and watersheds, while appropriating agricultural land best suited for equine industry expansion and thus threatens the critical mass of diversity required to maintain a viable industry (see chart representing land distribution of development trends).  Inefficient use of land within urban service boundaries, inconsistent goals/objectives for development, and inconsistent use of zoning policies among the seven counties have promoted uncoordinated regional growth and caused needless competition between counties, making rural lands the ultimate victim of this process.

If present day trends continue, additional pressure for development will be placed on the agriculture lands of the region.  As illustrated in the Impact of Development on the Equine Resource Area (ERA) map, a number of horse farms will be required to relocate to the outer perimeter of the ERA.  This, in turn, will increase pressure to convert outer agricultural land for use by the equine industry.  If this scenario continues, ultimately a domino effect will ensue which will impact the entire agriculture industry as its critical mass is diminished. This effect is illustrated in the upper left hand corner acreage square on the Impact of Development on Equine Resource Area map.  The acreage square on this map represents the approximately 93,000 equine acres in the region.  The shaded portion of the acreage square represents those acres lost to projected development.

Looking into the future it is difficult to predict a timeline for growth, however, all indicators suggest there will be continued growth and development in this region.  Planning without regional emphasis will continue to force counties and communities to compete with each other for employment opportunities and general growth.  Continued and unplanned development of corridors and communities will eventually lead to a landscape completely dominated by man-made structures, and where the agricultural zone will become a series of small, isolated islands of green within the man-made environment (see map of projected development).  While this scenario may paint a bleak picture of the future, the worst aspect is that agriculture, and especially the equine industry, will finally lose the critical mass necessary for viability and will, voluntarily or not, relocate to another part of the country or world.

The goal for future planning in the region should be to preserve the unique and finite Equine Resource Area (ERA) for that industry’s expansion while providing for planned and efficient community and commercial growth in less strategically significant areas (see map of Proposed Regional Masterplan for Preservation and Growth).  Based on information analyzed to predict future trends for this study, several recommendations can be made to preserve the ERA and agricultural lands while also insuring planned development.  Click to see a comparison of projected and proposed development.

First and foremost, to achieve this goal planning must occur in a regional context and communities must be prepared to share growth potential.  Each community or county must determine its particular identity within the region, in cooperation with the surrounding counties, and develop planning strategies accordingly.  For example, Lexington may focus on further developing its cultural and financial centers with little horizontal expansion while Richmond may strive to become a commercial and manufacturing center.  It is critical that growth occur away from the unique core Bluegrass resources.  Cities outside of the ERA, like Winchester and Georgetown, have considerable room for expansion away from the ERA, as has been demonstrated by the Toyota manufacturing center.  New, well planned development centers are essential to accommodate growth in adjacent counties, such as Garrard, Nicholas, and Montgomery.

A loop road system outside the ERA could help to direct growth away from the preservation zone and toward counties that can accommodate new development.  Cities located inside the ERA (Versailles, Paris, and Lexington) should limit outward growth through planning and zoning restrictions.  New development in Versailles and Paris should ideally be concentric in nature, rather than strip or linear development which would simply lead growth out into the rural areas.  Lexington already serves as the cultural and financial center for the region while each surrounding city maintains its own unique and separate identity.  Preservation of the ERA will function as a greenbelt to permanently maintain this separation of identities.

In addition to preserving the ERA, scenic corridors and sensitive ecological areas must be protected from development.  Greenways along waterways and areas of severe topography can serve as preservation zones as well as opportunities for recreation and education.

The most critical aspect of these recommendations is the creation of a regional planning body to protect and preserve the ERA as a unique resource.  The method most likely to succeed in preserving these agricultural lands is through a program to purchase development rights (PDR) from land owners.  A matrix outline that reflects the unique character of the region is provided to assist in prioritizing PDR acquisitions.

The previously described Areas at Risk map can  serve as a guide to identify areas and prioritize the need for preservation.  The lands in the area of highest risk should receive the highest priority or possible dollar value for inclusion into a protected agricultural zone.  Points awarded in the category of regional context on the matrix would be taken from the Areas at Risk map.  This proposed land value preservation chart is similar to one used by the PACE program, however, it should be noted there are some differences.  Given the unique aspects of the equine industry and the need to maintain a critical mass of horses for genetic diversity, preservation strategies must seek to protect smaller, more vulnerable parcels of land first.  Thus, on this evaluation chart, small parcels of land are awarded a higher priority to prevent their conversion, which also serves to deter the intrusion of small, nonagricultural developments among larger agricultural parcels (conversely, the PACE program awards higher priority to the larger acreage).  This strategy is based on the fact that the equine industry is not compatible with most adjacent residential and commercial land uses. Thus, securing the adjacent agricultural lands and protecting horse farms are equally important in preserving the resource area.

All available planning tools should be utilized to preserve the resources required for a thriving equine/agricultural industry and the cultural heritage of the Bluegrass Region.  Goals have been established to guide regional growth in the area with the appropriate planning tools to accomplish them.