Estimated Returns for Vegetables in Kentucky
Note:	These are cautious estimates developed during the spring of 2002 in the UK Ag Economics Department as part
	of the New Crop Opportunities Center.  The probabilities assigned are similar to those used
	in University of Georgia budgets; however, limited production and economic data for many
	crops in KY make the unpredictability of these crops extremely high.
	It should be noted that the budgets used assign a $159.94 fixed cost to the trickle irrigation
	system.  However, a new producer will obviously have to incur the entire cost of this system per year.
	UK Horticulture estimates this initial cost at a minimum of $1,244.
	Prices are extremely variable across crops and harvest time.  These budgets reflect a deduction of
	10% of gross income toward marketing.
	Enough cannot be said of environmental and temperate effects toward vegetable yields and returns.
	These "bottom line" suggestions should only be a part of any production decision made.
	In general, higher returning vegetables also reflect higher labor requirements.  As a rule of thumb, the probability
	of a pessimistic return is probably around 10%, while an optimistic might be 5%.
	Pessimistic:  Reflect up to a 30% decrease in price (depending on crop and seasonal schedules), up to a 20%
		decrease in production, and up to a 20% increase in total variable costs.
	Optimistic:  Reflect up to a 10% production increase combined with up to a 20% price increase and up to a 10%
		decrease in costs.
CABBAGE  (Fresh Green)
Operator Labor Assumption:			50 hours		Pessimistic		Conservative		Optimistic
Return Above Variable Costs					$      79.96		$       975.35		$1,672.58
Return to Operator Labor, Land, Capital and Management					$   (109.98)		$       691.54		$1,382.52
Return to Land, Capital and Management					$   (589.08)		$       291.54		$   982.52
Judging from the terminal market data from St. Louis, Detroit and Atlanta, red cabbage and savoy cabbage should
yield higher returns than the fresh green cabbage.  While production costs are slightly higher for red and savoy, the
terminal market prices tend to be 5%-20% higher than fresh green cabbage (red) and 10%-30% higher for savoy.
This will not, of course, result in the same increase in return but conservative returns should be in the $550 range.
CANTALOUPE					Pessimistic		Conservative		Optimistic
Operator Labor Assumption:			50 hours
Return Above Variable Costs					$    303.54		$    2,025.54		$3,002.87
Return to Operator Labor, Land, Capital and Management					$     (16.85)		$    1,410.21		$2,725.03
Return to Land, Capital and Management					$   (366.85)		$    1,010.21		$2,325.03
NOTE: Some producers may incur part/all of the cost of bins and pallets used in handling the cantaloupes in a co-op.
This can reduce listed returns by $600-$900.
CUCUMBER
Operator Labor Assumption:			20 hours
Return Above Variable Costs					$     (78.04)		$       714.75		$1,239.85
Return to Operator Labor, Land, Capital and Management					$   (345.08)		$       439.84		$   959.06
Return to Land, Capital and Management					$   (505.08)		$       279.84		$   799.06
Estimated Returns for Vegetables in Kentucky
					Pessimistic		Conservative		Optimistic
EGGPLANT
Operator Labor Assumption:			52 hours
Return Above Variable Costs					$   (516.98)		$    1,251.54		$2,831.18
Return to Operator Labor, Land, Capital and Management					$   (790.94)		$       959.45		$2,528.07
Return to Land, Capital and Management					$(1,190.94)		$       559.45		$2,128.07
BELL PEPPERS
Operator Labor Assumption:			40 hours
Return Above Variable Costs					$   (334.11)		$    2,491.28		$3,718.69
Return to Operator Labor, Land, Capital and Management					$   (634.05)		$    2,167.71		$3,367.87
Return to Land, Capital and Management					$   (954.05)		$    1,847.71		$3,047.87
JALEPENO PEPPERS
Operator Labor Assumption:			40 hours
Return Above Variable Costs					$    638.34		$    2,749.98		$4,783.53
Return to Operator Labor, Land, Capital and Management					$    331.27		$    2,421.41		$4,436.46
Return to Land, Capital and Management					$      11.27		$    2,101.41		$4,116.46
SQUASH
Operator Labor Assumption:			20 hours
Return Above Variable Costs					$   (495.36)		$       897.46		$1,613.97
Return to Operator Labor, Land, Capital and Management					$   (773.15)		$       600.92		$1,306.80
Return to Land, Capital and Management					$   (933.15)		$       440.92		$1,146.80
SWEET CORN
Operator Labor Assumption:			20 hours
Return Above Variable Costs					$   (189.17)		$       192.38		$   488.03
Return to Operator Labor, Land, Capital and Management					$   (464.19)		$        (89.02)		$   202.15
Return to Land, Capital and Management					$   (624.19)		$      (249.02)		$     42.15
TOMATOES, STAKED
Operator Labor Assumption:			220 hours
Return Above Variable Costs					$      45.89		$    4,257.13		$6,043.22
Return to Operator Labor, Land, Capital and Management					$   (300.89)		$    3,872.59		$5,637.68
Return to Land, Capital and Management					$(2,060.89)		$    2,112.59		$3,877.68
WATERMELONS, SEEDED
Operator Labor Assumption:			30 hours
Return Above Variable Costs					$   (309.96)		$       441.66		$   833.17
Return to Operator Labor, Land, Capital and Management					$   (597.52)		$       147.09		$   533.60
Return to Land, Capital and Management					$   (837.52)		$        (92.91)		$   293.60
WATERMELONS, SEEDLESS
Operator Labor Assumption:			30 hours
Return Above Variable Costs					$     (42.08)		$       608.79		$1,254.14
Return to Operator Labor, Land, Capital and Management					$   (320.41)		$       325.78		$   967.28
Return to Land, Capital and Management					$   (560.41)		$         85.78		$   727.78