By Dan Adkins
will accerate during 2002's fourth quarter, setting
the stage for moderate growth in 2003 and 2004, said
Mark Berger, director of UK's Center for Business
and Economic Research.
18, 2001 (Lexington, Ky.) -- Kentucky's
economy will experience slow growth during 2002 as
the state begins its recovery from the current recession,
economists at the University of Kentucky said today.
economy will grow by 1.8 percent next year, with total
employment rising by a weak 0.9 percent, said Mark
Berger, director of the Center for Business and Economic
Research at UK's Gatton College of Business and Economics.
However, growth will accelerate during 2002's fourth
quarter, setting the stage for moderate growth in
2003 and 2004, Berger said.
that even with the economic slowdown prompted by the
recession, Kentucky still seems primed to continue
a recent trend of exceeding the performance in the
national economy. An example is in the national forecast
for total employment to rise by an anemic 0.3 percent.
total personal income should grow by 2.4 percent,
equal the growth rate expected for wage and salary
As in previous
years, most increases in employment are expected in
the services and retail trade sectors. Services industry
employment should add 12,000 jobs, bringing its growth
rate to 2.4 percent. Retail trade should add 4,600
new jobs, an increase of 1.3 percent. Industries facing
likely job losses include the manufacturing sector,
which is expected to lose 2,000 jobs in 2002, a 0.7
percent rate of loss. The main industries facing losses
are apparel, textiles and tobacco products.
coal industry - which was predicted to lose jobs in
the 2001 forecast - actually added a few hundred jobs
this year, Berger said. In 2002, the forecast calls
for the industry to lose about 600 jobs, or 4 percent
of its total employment.