2009.04.01 17:48:30 208.74.228.17 http%3A//www.uky.edu/Ag/UKEEL/surveys/survey7-2d.html No _ 2009.06.26 08:37:41 143.115.159.54 http%3A//www.uky.edu/Ag/UKEEL/surveys/survey7-2d.html No I believe that the purpose of insurance is to spread risk, rather than to gamble. I'm not familiar with the goverment situation in Piura, in particular with there budgetary constraints, but this risk is much better handled by a public entity than by a private insurer. _ 2009.06.26 10:32:25 72.245.106.106 http%3A//www.uky.edu/Ag/UKEEL/surveys/survey7-2d.html Yes 7000000 _ 2009.06.27 13:50:25 76.28.10.172 http%3A//www.uky.edu/Ag/UKEEL/surveys/survey7-2d.html Yes 10 Private insurance tends to be a very inefficient mechanism for dealing with catastraphic losses. Claim adjustment, underwriting, commission, and reinsurance costs can eat up half of the premium. The gov't also faces the prospect of high premium increases after a loss event. Gov't should self insure. 2009.06.29 10:06:01 74.87.123.98 http%3A//www.uky.edu/Ag/UKEEL/surveys/survey7-2d.html Yes 4M plus an expense and profit load This assumes that flooding does not happen unless an extreme ENSO event occurs. If flooding can happen due to other causes, I would load more into the loss estimate. _ 2009.07.01 10:17:28 65.213.82.10 http%3A//www.uky.edu/Ag/UKEEL/surveys/survey7-2d.html Yes USD 10 million _The company should also write North Atlantic hurricane insurance as this peril is mitigated by El Nino cycles (due to higher wind shear). 2009.07.01 12:00:30 162.136.193.1 http%3A//www.uky.edu/Ag/UKEEL/surveys/survey7-2d.html Yes 10000000 _ 2009.07.02 08:39:29 72.92.80.63 http%3A//www.uky.edu/Ag/UKEEL/surveys/survey7-2d.html Yes 8 Million Presumably the expected pure premium is 5% of $80 M or $4 M. However, the two respected scientists might be in error and the odds higher. Also, chance fluctuation could increase the loss. Also, you have not equated "extreme event" with ENSO value of two. Considerable uncertainty exists. _ 2009.07.09 11:49:18 199.207.253.96 http%3A//www.uky.edu/Ag/UKEEL/surveys/survey7-2d.html No Insurance availability in these circumstances would be quite difficult. Significant resources would need to be set aside to cover the possibility that there would be a total loss. Further, once the loss occurs, the cost of getting the reservoir back in operations, political fallout is significant. 2009.07.15 13:12:17 149.168.74.4 http%3A//www.uky.edu/Ag/UKEEL/surveys/survey7-2d.html Yes 10,000,000 _The expected annual loss is 4,00,000 to 5,000,000 but you have to add expenses and a risk load to that. 2009.07.17 08:00:34 143.115.159.53 http%3A//www.uky.edu/Ag/UKEEL/surveys/survey7-2d.html Yes 5,400,000 Despite the engineers' opinion that the loss would only be as high as $80m, I included some probability of a total loss. Then I grossed up the policy for expenses and added a profit/risk load. Very crude estimate! _