The hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA, Adelges tsugae) is an exotic invasive insect that is rapidly establishing itself in the eastern US, and is the single greatest threat to eastern hemlocks (Tsuga canadensis). In 2005, HWA has been established in portions of 16 states from Maine to Georgia, covering about half of the natural range of hemlock. Kentucky's neighboring states of West Virginia, Virginia, and Tennessee are heavily or partially HWA-infested, and recent findings in Kentucky puts our state on the frontier of the HWA invasion process. If no action is taken, the invasion will inevitably encompass Kentucky, and the resulting ecological and economic losses will be catastrophic. We propose to establish a state wide HWA monitoring system. The specific objectives of this project are 1) to determine the spatial distribution of hemlock forests in Kentucky, and 2) to detect incipient HWA infestations, and 3) predict HWA spread based upon the distribution of the hemlock forest type in Kentucky.

Invasion of exotic species constitutes one of the most serious forms of ecological degradation in urban forests, affecting millions of metropolitan residents across the country.  We propose to study the association between the occurrence of invasive exotic plants and the characteristics of urban forest remnants and their surrounding landscapes (size, structure, usage, and management).  The resulting model will assist urban foresters and park managers to prevent and/or mitigate biological invasion for existing and future parks and remnants via better design and management.  This research will help to raise public awareness by disseminating research findings through brochures, workshops, and on-line publications.

Wildlife researchers are increasingly expected to use advanced technology for determining the ecological, spatial, and behavioral characteristics of imperiled and otherwise important wildlife species.  The dynamic interactions among individuals influence resource selection patterns of populations and are an important consideration for natural resource managers. Unfortunately, the evolution of analytical approaches to dealing with large volumes of data has lagged behind other capabilities such as the application of global positioning systems (GPS).  We propose to develop an animation program, coupled with an event-logging system.

The American chestnut (Castanea dentata) was one of the most important trees in Appalachian forests, then reigning over 200 million acres of eastern woodlands.  It was eliminated from the overstory by chestnut blight (Cryphonectria parasitica) during the early 20th century.  Interest in restoring the species has renewed as the The American Chestnut Foundation (TACF) has progressed with its program of breeding a blight-resistant replacement.  This research is to develop the historical distribution and abundance of American chestnut and discover the survival chestnut using GIS and spatial analysis.

Spatial and temporal hotspot detection and surveillance have been applied to critical issues, such as homeland security, public health, disaster management, and ecosystem health. Chestnut oak regeneration hotspots were investigated in 52 mature mixed-oak stands in the central Appalachians. SaTScan, ClusterSeer, and classification tree were applied to detect chestnut oak regeneration hotspots.

Ecological counts data are often characterized by an excess of zeros and spatial dependence. Excess zeros can occur in regions outside the range of the distribution of a given species. A zero-inflated Poisson regression model is developed, under which the species range is determined by a spatial probit model, including physical variables as covariates. Within that range, species counts are independently drawn from a Poisson distribution whose mean depends on biotic variables. Bayesian inference for this model is illustrated using data on oak seedling counts.

Throughout eastern America, natural regeneration of oaks (Quercus spp.) is often difficult to obtain even where oaks are dominant components in the overstory before harvest. Our understanding of oak declining is in part hindered by a lack of quantitative, descriptive information about stands undergoing this process. The objectives of this study are to explore the forest composition, to understand regeneration potentials and limitations, and to project and evaluate regeneration in the early stage of stand development of mixed-oak stands in the central Appalachians.