John Clark's
Web Pages
Home
Service
Curriculum Vita
Courses on the Web
Lane Report Columns
College Technology
Search Resources
Technology Links
Music Links
Communicate with me --
comments/questions to:
jclark@pop.uky.edu
Countdown to the Millennium
The reality of the "Year 2000" will affect us all in ways both large and small
It seems unlikely that there is yet anyone in the Bluegrass business community who is: 1) not aware that the millennium fast approaches (the older you are, the faster it approaches), and 2) not aware that commerce faces a substantial setback due to the fact that most of the nation's desktop and mainframe computers, along with their operating systems and software, are not what we now call Y2K compliant. In other words, without replacement or some less drastic form of correction, they will all fail as the clock ticks over into the year 2000. The bright side of the story is that most software and most computer systems are fixable. And if you are fortunate enough to be a Mac user, you have absolutely nothing to worry about, at least as far as your computer goes.
As serious as the computer problem is, however, it may be dwarfed by another problem that may leave virtually no one unaffected. There are many of us who are coming to realize that perhaps the most serious situation we face comes from the potential failure of every device with an integrated circuit, or chip, in it. At the University of Kentucky, 16,000 such devices have been identified in the Medical Center alone, including heart monitors, ventilators, IV drip controllers, and so on and so forth. But the problem also extends to more mundane items like cameras, camcorders, VCRs, video edit controllers, answering machines, fax machines, copiers, vending machines, phone key systems, alarm systems, computer-controlled valves for water, heating and sewage systems, microprocessors in cars, planes, and trains, and on and on. You get the picture.
However, most of these devices (outside of the Med Center) may fail without significant loss of life. The same may not be said for various transportation systems. KLM has become the first major airline to announce that it is suspending flights on the last day of 1999 and the first day of 2000, and others will undoubtedly follow. They are not as worried about their computer systems (which can be fixed) as they are about the numerous chips that are part of the electronics of their planes. The problem is that no one knows which devices will simply lose some of their functionality and which will fail altogether. You may believe that your chip-driven device could not possibly have a date function, but it could be the case (as it is with the chips in cars) that technicians rely on the chips to give them the date the device was last serviced or checked on a computer analysis system -- thus the chips do have a date function.
Lest you be inclined to regard it all as a tempest in a teapot, there is evidence that warrants real concern. For one thing, Y2K lawsuits are expected to top one trillion dollars over the next couple of years. The first Y2K lawsuit was filed last year. It concerns the complete failure of a retail point-of-sale system when faced with verifying credit cards with year 2000 expiration dates. A chain of fresh produce outlets in New England discovered that these credit cards crashed their entire system, with a ten minute wait to reboot each and every time. After this happened 100 times the first month, they said enough is enough, and began looking for some redress from the manufacturer of the system, whom they believe should have had the foresight to prevent the situation from occurring. As incredible as it may seem, there really isn't any major manufacturer who has had that foresight. Next month: how ready are we for the year 2000?