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Wireless Wave of the Future
Personal Communications Services are leading the next wave of wireless technology

It has been some years now since Nicholas Negroponte, founder of the MIT Media Lab, predicted a transition in the telecommunications industry that has come to be popularly known as the "Negroponte Switch." The basic thrust of his prediction can be explained thusly: Personal communications, which have historically been "wired" communications such as telegraph and telephone, will increasingly become "wireless" communications. Traditional "wireless" communications, which have always been the province of broadcast radio and television, will be delivered via wires and fiber optic cables. The reason is really very simple. A relatively low number of bandwidth-hogging radio and television signals use a tremendous amount of scarce over-the-air spectrum space, while lightweight voice and e-mail transmissions use comparatively little bandwidth.

The wisdom of Negroponte's prediction is apparent in today's world, where cable television and cellular phones are so commonplace that even those of us who remember a time when it wasn't so sometimes wonder how it could be otherwise. More than 60% of television viewers are watching via cable, while 16% of all Americans own a cellular phone, and the number of wireless phone users is expected to grow to almost 50% in the next decade. However, those wireless phone users won't necessarily be using cellular phones. Looming on the horizon is the next big wave of the wireless future: personal communications services (PCS).

So what is PCS, and how does it differ from cellular technology? First, a PCS device is not just a phone. Of course, you can use it as a phone, and make use of services such as voice mail, caller ID and call forwarding, as well. But you can also use it as a pager, as a web browser, and to send and receive your e-mail. Unlike standard cellular service, which is analog, PCS makes use of the latest digital technology. This technology enables clearer voice communications, but more importantly, it enables greater compression rates and higher data transfer rates for faster and cleaner data transmission. The business traveler, operating a laptop computer remotely via PCS, will find that he or she will be able to run applications and retrieve data faster.

Second, the PCS handset, operating within a private network, allows the user to roam the business premises by interfacing with transceiving equipment that is connected to the wired telephone network. When it comes time to leave the building, the same handset, using the same telephone number, simply switches to operating within the wireless PCS network. As a matter of fact, due to the use of satellites in PCS networks, you should be able to use your PCS handset anywhere in the world without modifying your equipment or your personal communication number (PCN). A PCN associates a telephone number with one individual -- once the association is made, the number never changes, regardless of location, equipment or service provider.

Third, PCS, even with its additional features, will ultimately be cheaper than cellular services and will even rival your local phone service provider's rates as increasing demand and economies of scale take hold. Some telecommunications companies, known as competitive access providers (CAPs), are now going into direct competition, not with cellular service providers, but with the RBOCs and GTE. Already, PCS rates are 15% to 20% lower than cellular rates in the same markets, and the cost to the user situation will only improve as PCS providers begin to compete with each other.

On a final note, PCS may help to eliminate a problem that has already been encountered in the Bluegrass. Rather than the obtrusive, hilltop-located cellular towers that some find objectionable, PCS antennas are much smaller, though more numerous. They can be located on telephone poles and the tops of buildings -- and one company is even experimenting with hiding them behind billboards and disguising them as trees. Next month: the second of a two-parter on PCS.