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Surfing the Boob Tube?
The tech industry rolls the dice with Web TV and Network Computers
Just when you thought you couldn't possibly handle more choices in the increasingly crowded computer field, along comes another dilemma for you if you're going to be in the market for a desktop machine this year. You're probably familiar with the kinds of features that are generally considered desirable in desktop computing: fast processors, lots of RAM, great big hard drives, and so on and so forth. Coming to your local retail shelves soon, however, are computers that don't feature any of the above, and are proud of it, to boot.
Joining the alphabet soup of acronyms in computing is the NC, which stands for Network Computer (at least it's one of the shorter acronyms). A number of new companies and some well-established ones are banking (literally) on the notion that many home computer users really just want access to the World Wide Web. If that's the case, then all these consumers really need is a basic box with a network connection and just enough RAM and hard drive space to run a browser and some other limited software.
Closely related to the NC concept is the Web TV -- your familiar television set augmented with the capability to access the Internet for fun and pleasure. Many industry prognosticators have predicted that convergence between TV technology and computer technology is the name of the game for the future. These folks assume that the same quest for entertainment and information drives the use of each technology. Of course, the tremendous advantage that the NC and the Web TV possess is their cost, which is less than half of what you would pay for a fully-equipped desktop computer. However, now that the stage is set for the advent of the NC and Web TV, just as many informed sources are predicting a rocky road for these new technologies.
One reason for concern is the fact that television watching is normally considered a group activity, generally entered into for the purpose of consuming a little diverting entertainment. On the other hand, computing is generally regarded as an intensely personal activity -- so personal that one computer maven of my acquaintance recommends that husbands and wives possess their own personal computers rather than take a chance on some disagreement over software or culpability for errors causing marital spats which could lead to increased rates of divorce.
Another major factor, according to a recent study by the Aragon Consulting Group, is the child factor. Currently, about 45% of all U.S. households have computers. Since the best predictor of purchasing behavior is prior purchasing behavior, naturally the new companies want to target households that already have computers. But, of the 45% of U.S. households that have a computer, 85% of them have children at home. These children, supposedly accustomed to having access to computers at school, will want the same capabilities at home: the ability to run different kinds of software and to store relatively large amounts of data. Whether or not the notion is plausible I will leave to your own tender sensibilities.
One thing that is certain is that the PC industry has already saturated the most likely market -- higher-income families with children. The rate of growth in sales has slowed from 23% two years ago to 14% last year (as unlucky retailers discovered during this past Christmas shopping season) and will probably be lower than that this year. So if we assume that the makers of NCs and Web TVs are not going to be able to crack the current market, then that leaves only the 55% of households that do not currently possess computers, which the industry hopes to capture with the significantly lower prices of the new machines. However, I think it's safe to make a further assumption that at least half of these households are occupied by people who have absolutely no interest in computing or the Internet. Of the remainder -- who knows? Chances are these folks are in an income bracket that doesn't allow the purchase of anything but the necessities of life. Computers may be regarded that way one of these days, but not yet.