STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort.

INTRODUCTION: Rehabilitation interventions are commonly prescribed for patients with shoulder pain, but it is unclear what factors may help clinicians' prognosis for final outcomes.

PURPOSE OF THE STUDY: The purpose of this study is to determine what factors are the best predictors of improved patient-reported outcomes at discharge in patients with shoulder pain.

METHODS: Retrospective chart review of 128 patients presenting with shoulder pain to an outpatient physical therapy clinic. Chart review captured data regarding patient demographics, treatment interventions, patient history, and patient-reported outcome scores. The primary dependent variable was the overall change score of the QuickDASH (initial to discharge). Thirty-eight predictor variables were entered into a forward stepwise multivariate linear regression model to determine which variables and to what degree contributed to the dependent variable.

RESULTS: The linear regression model identified 5 predictor variables that yielded an R = 0.74 and adjusted R = 0.538 (P < .001). The 5 predictor variables identified in order of explained variance are QuickDASH change at the fifth visit, a total number of visits, initial QuickDASH score, scapular retraction exercise, and age.

DISCUSSION: Early change scores, equal to minimal detectable change scores on patient-reported outcomes appear to be strong indicators that patients with shoulder pain are on a positive trajectory to benefit from rehabilitation.

CONCLUSION: Using patient-reported outcomes throughout care, not just at the start and end of care, will provide therapist feedback regarding patient's progress and indicate treatment effectiveness.

LEVELS OF EVIDENCE: 4.